Webinar Series

NetElixir’s 18th Holiday Forecast: The AI-First Holiday Season

With macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting consumer behavior, and the rise of AI, this year’s forecast remains cautiously optimistic.

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NetElixir hosted its 18th Annual Holiday Forecast Webinar, preparing eCommerce brands for one of the most complex holiday seasons yet. With macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting consumer behavior, and the rise of AI, this year’s forecast remains cautiously optimistic.

Holiday 2025 won’t grow on demand, it will be a zero-sum game. With consumer sentiment down and ad costs rising, growth will come only from winning share. And for the first time, AI agents will control the

Holiday Forecast: Slower Growth, Bigger Stakes

Our forecast projects 4.2% Y/Y growth in U.S. eCommerce this season — nearly half the rate of last year. The implications are clear:

Profitability over volume will define winners.
Trust and visibility in AI engines will determine consideration.

Experimentation and first-party data are the only hedges against uncertainty.

Key Dates: NetElixir’s Holiday E-Commerce Marketing Calendar

To help retailers prepare, we’ve created the 2025 Holiday eCommerce Marketing Calendar with day-wise sales estimates and critical action points. This is your playbook for navigating the most complex holiday season since 2020. Some key dates to highlight.

Black Friday promotions begin as early as November 16 and stretch through Thanksgiving.
December 18 marks the last ground shipping day.
Post-Christmas promotions run December 26–29, though discounting may be lighter due to inflation and supply chain constraints.
Buy Now, Pay Later and Buy Online Pickup In Store will be major sales drivers between December 18–22.

This is the first AI-First Holiday Season. The question is: will you adapt fast enough to win?

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