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2017 Holiday Forecasts Revealed (with Insights)

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We’re so excited to bring you our 9th Holiday Forecast!

Since August 2008, we’ve had an ongoing analysis of ecommerce and search engine marketing metrics for our customer base of mid-size and large customers with over $400 MM online holiday revenue (November to December).

For our study, we considered 450 million sessions across 5 main holiday verticals: gourmet food, apparel and shoes, home and decor, gifting, and consumer electronics.

Here’s What We Found


Y/Y Growth Slowed Down in Later Half of Q2, 2017

Our Predictions:

Amazon’s share of total online holiday sales will grow to 34% this year.

Percent Share of Online Holiday Sales is Increasing.

We’ll see slower than usual online sales this holiday season with 10% Y/Y growth.

Source (2013-2016): Actual ecommerce data from ComScore


3 Factors Responsible for Slower Holiday Ecommerce Growth Projections This Year

  1. The Amazon Factor. Amazon’s share will continue to increase, driven by aggressive promotions, growth of the marketplace, and new devices like the Echo and Echo Dot. Plus, Christmas in July, driven by Amazon Prime Day was copied by other large retailers.
  2. Shift of Website Sales to Marketplaces. Unfortunately, this does not lead to overall incremental ecommerce growth for merchants.
  3. Macro-Economic Factors. Important indicators like unemployment rate, inflation rate, gross domestic product, and overall spending habits have a critical effect.

However, there are 2 forces that can still support a double digit Y/Y ecommerce growth. Don’t give up just yet!

  • Mobile Shopping: We estimate 35% of all online purchases will happen through mobile phones.
  • Better Integrated Fulfillment: Near-me searches coupled with buy online and pick-up in-store opportunities.
Let the holiday season begin!

Our conclusion?

It’s no surprise that the big winner this holiday season will be Amazon.

Last year, Amazon’s holiday sales were approximately $23 billion. This year, we predict that number will reach over $28.5 billion. Amazon’s share of total online holiday sales this year will be 34%.

In comparison, online retailers’ holiday sales is estimated to reach only $2.5 billion in comparison. It’s almost like they can’t compare to the Amazon giant.

Hungry for more data? Download our Holiday Readiness slides or watch the full webinar here. You can also download our Holiday Readiness Workbook for 20 Proven Holiday Success Strategies, a Planning Calculator, and more information about our invite-only Holiday Readiness Workshops.

Keep a competitive edge this holiday season. Don’t forget to sign up for a Paid Search Audit conducted by our dedicated team of experts!